Fresenius Medical Care expects the number of dialysis patients worldwide to grow by about 6% in 2011. Some significant regional differences will remain. We anticipate a 3 to 5% increase in patient numbers in the U.S., Japan, and Western and Central Europe. In these regions, the prevalence of chronic kidney failure is already relatively high and patients generally have reliable access to treatment, normally dialysis. In economically weaker regions, the growth rates are even higher with values of up to 10%, and in some countries even more than that. We expect patient numbers to continue to rise in the coming years with annual growth rates remaining at 6%.
Demographic factors are one of the main reasons for the continued growth of the dialysis market, including the aging population and the mounting incidence of diabetes and hypertension – two diseases that often precede end-stage renal disease. Furthermore, dialysis patients’ life expectancy is increasing due to steady improvements in dialysis treatment and the rising standard of living in developing countries.
As a result of the anticipated differences in growth rates, a higher proportion of patients will undergo dialysis treatment in Asia, Latin America, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa in future. This opens up huge potential for the entire spectrum of dialysis services and products, as more than 80% of the world’s population lives in these regions.
We do not expect significant changes in the distribution of dialysis treatment modalities in 2011 and 2012. Hemodialysis will remain the treatment of choice, accounting for about 89% of all dialysis therapies. Peritoneal dialysis should continue to be the preferred treatment for about 11% of all dialysis patients.
The volume of the worldwide dialysis market, which according to estimates amounted to about $69 BN last year, is expected to increase by around 4% annually. This is based on the assumption that exchange rates will remain stable in the forecasting period. As a result, the total market could amount to approximately $75 BN by 2012, almost doubling its volume over a period of just ten years.
Expected Growth in Patient Numbers in 20111
|North America||~ 5%|
|Europe/Middle East/Africa||~ 4%|
|Latin America||~ 7%|