General Economic Development
In 2010, the economy recovered more rapidly than anticipated by experts. This momentum is not expected to continue in 2011, however, as some economic stimulus programs have since been suspended. Despite this, a moderate upwards trend in the global economy overall is forecast, as low interest rates help to ensure continued investment and the stable situation on the labor market favors private consumption. For 2011, the global gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3.6% on average, following a 4.8% rise in the previous year.
Real gross domestic product and Consumer Prices |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Expected change from the previous year in % |
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Gross domestic product |
Consumer price index |
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2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
| Sources: Institute for the World Economy at Kiel University: "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2010", December 15, 2010, monthly reports of the Deutsche Bundesbank and the European Central Bank. | ||||||
| U.S. | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Germany | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Euro zone | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| UK | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| New EU member states | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| EU 27 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Russia | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Japan | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | – 0.8 | – 0.4 | – 0.6 |
| China | 10.7 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| East Asia and Hong Kong | 7.4 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 3.4 |
| Latin America | 5.9 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 6.8 |
WORLDWIDE |
4.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
U.S.
Economic expansion is expected to slow down in the current financial year, as general investment activity in particular is likely to weaken. Moreover, the labor and real estate markets remain in crisis, which puts a strain on private consumption. On balance, GDP should grow by 2.5% in 2011.
Europe
In the Euro zone, slower growth is forecast, similar to developments in the U.S. The German economy is expected to record above-average growth compared to the rest of the euro zone. A stable labor market and low interest rates are supporting private consumption and investments. Nevertheless, a slowdown in growth is also forecast in Germany.
Asia
In Asia, economic development is expected to be mixed in the current year: The key growth drivers continue to be emerging countries like China and India. In Japan, however, only moderate growth is anticipated.
Latin America
The rate of expansion is expected to slow down in Latin America, due to an increasingly restrictive monetary policy. Growth ist supported by good domestic demand and high prices for raw materials. Overall, the GDP in this region is forecast to grow by 3.2% in 2011, after rising 5.9% in 2010.